The Rays seemed to shock everyone except me with their World Series run last season (See my April 2008 column: “Tampa Bay Will Have its Day” - http://www.mlbballtalk.blogspot.com/). It has become popular among baseball writers and self-confident, yet dim-witted bloggers to cleverly point out the fact that since 2001, at least one of the two teams to reach the World Series seemed to do so riding long shot, Cinderella chances and/or relative obscurity of some of their key, young players. The Diamondbacks in 2001, Mike Scioscia’s Angels in 2002, the Marlins in 2003, the Red Sox in 2004, the Astros and White Sox in 2005, Cardinals in 2006 (cemented by rookie closer-now-starter, Adam Wainwright), the Rockies in 2007, and the Rays in 2008 each realized improbable runs to the Fall Classic. These gurus are then quick to beg the question, “Who will be the Rays of 2009?” Bravo to all the self-proclaimed baseball experts who not only picked up on this overtly repeated trend, but also have the foresight to project its continuance!
In 2009, the most serious contender for an underdog run is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not only are they serious contenders, but I declare them my early favorites to win the National League Championship Series in 2009. This prediction, as are all in the world of sports, is contingent on the absence of significant injuries to the players instrumental in their club’s pending success (i.e. Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, Chad Qualls, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young).
In order for the Diamondbacks to be the contenders that they should be this coming season, three essential things must happen. First, Mark Reynolds must improve his defense at third base. Reducing his error total at third base by about 40% would be a start (34 errors in 150 games at 3B in 2008). Second, CF Chris Young, RF Justin Upton, and Reynolds must all raise their batting averages a minimum of 20 points (.248, .250, and .239 respectively in 2008). Third, young right hander Max Scherzer must continue to emerge as one of the games best young pitching prospects.
With the recent departures of Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, the Diamondbacks began a winter quest to fill their two voids, behind co-aces Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, with veteran lefty Doug Davis holding the final rotation spot. One of those voids was successfully filled for the short term with the signing of Jon Garland, whom I consider a lock for 200+ innings, 32 starts, and approximately a 4.50 ERA, if the last seven years are any indication of what is to come. And they are, plus he is shifting to the National League for the first time in his career, where there is a true bottom to every batting order.
Filling the other hole falls squarely on the shoulders of Scherzer, for whom the organization has high expectations. Scherzer has a power arm and routinely runs fastballs up at 95-96 mph. I’ve seen him hit as high as 98 on the gun. His repertoire also features a good change up between about 85 and 88 mph. His two seam fastball and breaking ball give him a complete set of pitches with movement that he needs to induce ground-ball outs in a division that features hot weather towns and the zero-gravity of Coors Field. Come playoff time, Scherzer becomes the wild card. He is capable of out-performing any other number 3 or 4 pitcher he would stand to be matched up against. These include Rich Harden and Ted Lilly of the Cubs, Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton of the Phillies, Oliver Perez and John Maine of the Mets (although Maine is a similar type of pitcher), and some combination of Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf of the Dodgers.
The team with the deepest rotation will pitch its way through the post-season, as bats often go cold with the weather. The Diamondbacks have deep, quality pitching and a potent offense that also features plenty of speed. The Giants have an extremely strong rotation, but the offense will struggle again. No Molina should be a 4-hole hitter. The Padres will have similar offensive issues, as Adrian Gonzalez remains the only major run producer. The Rockies have lost Matt Holliday’s bat, just about every member of their starting rotation has control issues, and the back end of the bullpen features two question marks: Huston Street’s shoulder and Manny Corpas’s effectiveness. The Dodgers are the D-Backs’ competition in the NL West this year, but Arizona’s young stars experienced their growing pains last year, and the club is poised to see individual breakout seasons all over the diamond. They have the fire power to get to October and the perfect blend of youth, experience, and talent to carry them the rest of the way.
On the Side: With the departure of perennial Gold Glove 2B, Orlando Hudson, the D-Backs quietly signed Felipe Lopez to man second base for the 2009 season. Lopez is a very capable defensive replacement, and could provide some more punch to the already imposing lineup, should he continue the torrid hitting pace with which he ended the 2008 season. In the 43 games after his move to St. Louis at the end of last season, Lopez hit .385 with four of his six home runs. His on-base percentage also skyrocketed to .426, up from his career average of .330. Those numbers will of course come down, but hopefully Lopez will finally be the catalyst in the Arizona offense he has always had the ability to be. At 28 years old, he will begin 2009 in the prime of his career. Hitting in a power-rich lineup that included Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel, despite late-season woes, was something he lacked in Washington, is what ignited Lopez’s second half last year. With his new club, Lopez finds himself amid the power bats of Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, and all those in contention for outfield positions. He should see the most fastballs of any player in that lineup, and what better way to be productive than to be protected in the order?
Baseball season begins every year in Arizona and Florida. This year, it will end there as well. Arizona vs. Tampa Bay for the reasons I have stated this year, and last.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Friday, November 14, 2008
Off-Season Speculation - Part 2: Position Players
Free Agency:
The big-names to be courted during this winter’s free agency period (Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, etc.) and big-name players who will potentially be shopped, (Garrett Atkins, Mike Cameron, etc.) are not the subject of this column, as they are discussed to no end by every beat writer and blogger who regards himself as a baseball expert. My goal is to predict the destinations of the smaller name players who will have big impacts in the coming seasons and to examine the reasons why certain signings/trades make sense. After all, the majority of off-season moves fall into this category, and ultimately make a big difference for the buyers and sellers over the course of the season.
One key free agent to watch is LF Pat Burrell. It is well known that Burrell’s first choice is to remain in Philadelphia with the team that drafted him first overall in 1998. The team to watch in the Burrell sweepstakes, should the Phillies push him out the door, is the Baltimore Orioles. The team has shown interest in Burrell in previous years, and it was reported that the club even had a deal in place two years ago for the left fielder until Burrell exercised his no-trade clause. With Adam Jones a lock in center field and Nick Markakis in right, Burrell would seem the obvious choice to start in left ahead of Luke Scott who shared time with free agent veteran Jay Payton. Payton will not be back if Burrell signs with Baltimore. Scott put up respectable numbers in 2008, registering career-highs in home runs (23) and RBI’s (65). Scott (.257 BA in 2008) is only about a year and a half younger than Burrell (.257 career BA). Burrell’s production and defense, yes his defense (86 outfield assists since 2000, including 12 in 2008), will outweigh Scott’s edge in the youth category. Offensively, since his first full season in 2001, Burrell has averaged over 29 HR and 93 RBIs per season. At 32, he will be an impact in the middle of the lineup still for a number of years. Another team to watch is the Dodgers, who might be in need of a LF should Manny Ramirez depart. Andruw Jones has bottomed out, but has one year remaining in LA, and Juan Pierre has requested a trade. With Matt Kemp in center, Andre Ethier in right, and two big right handed bats leaving the lineup (Ramirez and 2B Jeff Kent), Burrell would fit nicely in left for Joe Torre’s squad. Look for Burrell, who earned $14 million in 2008, to receive a contract slightly upwards of Eric Byrnes’s pre-2008 contract extension, worth $30 million over three seasons.
Free agent 3B Joe Crede is out of a job on the South Side of Chicago, as Josh Fields is the heir apparent at third, and the White Sox have grown tired of Crede’s never-ending back issues. Crede is a legitimate power threat, topping 20 HR in three consecutive years from 2004-2006, hitting 30 in ’06, the best offensive year of his career. In addition to his offensive aptitude, he has an exceptional glove at third base. His performance defensively was poor in 2008, the only year in which he topped 12 errors in a season. His career .963 fielding percentage speaks for itself. Crede goes toward the line and can pick it on his backhand with the best of them. Injuries will be the only detractor in Crede’s case, but the Brewers, Dodgers, Indians, Angels and Twins should be most interested. The Indians just dealt 3B Casey Blake, who could walk away from the Dodgers, the team that dealt 3B prospect Andy LaRoche in order to land Manny Ramirez at the trade deadline. The Brewers officially gave up on Bill Hall, buying out his contract, and 3B has been a problem spot for the Twins since the Mike Lamb experiment failed last season. Crede and Blake will create competition among these teams looking to shore up their hot corners. If healthy, Crede is hands down the better value and is five years younger than Blake. The teams interested will certainly be reduced by one should one of those mentioned swing a trade for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins, who has two arbitration years ahead of him before free agency.
Pending Burrell’s departure from Philadelphia, the Phillies will be looking for a right handed bat to platoon in the outfield and to balance the bench that includes lefties Matt Stairs, Jeff Jenkins, and Greg Dobbs. A low risk solution could potentially be found in 30-year old free agent Juan Rivera. He is a career .284 hitter and had his best season in 2006, but has lately been the victim of the Angels' outfield depth (Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson – also a free agent, Gary Matthews, Jr., Reggie Willits). Rivera will not be expensive, and should welcome the idea of a platoon role over being a fifth outfielder, as he was in LA.
Sean Casey’s one-year, $800,000 contract with the Red Sox has expired, and with Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, and even David Ortiz able to man first base in Boston, Casey is almost a sure bet to depart. He is a career .302 contact hitter with a lifetime on-base percentage of .381 and seems a perfect fit for the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s style of low-risk, short-term signings. First base has been a problem spot for Oakland as Daric Barton and John Hannahan performed terribly at the plate this past season. Barton and Hannahan, who manned third base for much of the year for the oft-injured Eric Chavez, were near mirror images of each other in 2008 as Barton hit .226 with 9 HR/ 47 RBIs/ 2 steals in 140 games and Hannahan hit .218 with 9 HR/47 RBI/ 2 steals in 143 games. Both are left handed, like Casey. I’ll take Casey.
Trades:
One of the most intriguing teams this off-season is shaping up to be the Oakland A’s. Billy Beane just acquired LF Matt Holliday from the Rockies for lefty starter Greg Smith, closer Huston Street, and OF Carlos Gonzalez. As I have written before, the shrewd GM is turned off by any long-term contract and commitment demands, the same demands that Holliday will be making one year from now when he tests the free agent market for the first time. So, first order of business is to discount any possibility of Holliday being in an Athletics uniform beyond 2009, or maybe even by the end of the 2009 season. Beane often signs veterans to 1-year deals, which is essentially what he has in Holliday, at $13 million, a salary Beane is never inclined to hand out. I see two potential options that Beane is weighing. The first is another trade of Holliday before the start of the season, when teams who do not solve their off-season LF issues begin to panic. In such a trade, Beane, whom I regard as the most deft trade negotiator in baseball, would garner more young talent than he gave up in Smith, Street, and Gonzalez. If he does not go this route, I expect Beane to deal Holliday at next year’s trade deadline, given that the A’s trail the Angels in the West. In that situation, Beane again would receive more in return than he gave up to get Holliday. If the A’s are in first place in the AL West come the end of July 2009, Beane will likely keep Holliday’s bat and receive two compensation draft picks (one from the team Holliday signs with, one supplemental round pick) in return, as Holliday will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent.
With the recent re-signing of sure handed 2B Mark Ellis (.989 fielding percentage) to a 2-year extension through 2010, Ellis could be keeping second base warm for 21-year old Double-A prospect Adrian Cardenas (.297 career Minor League BA). A year from now, depending on Cardenas’s progress in Triple-A Sacramento, Ellis could be valuable trade bait to a high-powered team looking to shore up second base with top-flight defense (i.e. the Cubs should Mark DeRosa sign elsewhere). Eric Chavez is also under contract through 2010. He has one of the best gloves I have ever seen at third base (.969 career fielding %), and is a 25 HR threat when healthy. He also will only be 31, and hopefully back and shoulder pain free, when the 2009 season begins. A solid campaign this coming year could net Beane quality young talent in a potential trade next off-season.
Teams looking for a utility man will probably first inquire about Willy Aybar of Tampa Bay following his strong performance as a fill-in at 3B when Evan Longoria went down. Aybar’s .353 postseason batting average and pair of HRs in the ALCS drove up his market value, but GM Andrew Friedman should be inclined to keep Aybar, who is valuable all around the infield.
When Willy Aybar does not work out, teams should turn their attention to the Angels’ infield as Brandon Wood is primed to emerge as the everyday shortstop, finally adding some pop to the position that has been manned by Willy’s brother Erick Aybar, fellow utility man Maicer Izturis, and even Chone Figgins. Aybar and Izturis will be expendable now that Wood is here to stay, and should the Angels land a third baseman such as Joe Crede, Figgins will fall into the expendable category, as well. Erick Aybar and Izturis are basically equals offensively, but Aybar (24) is four years younger and is more likely to see his offensive numbers improve in the coming years. Izturis (.967 career fielding %, .991 at SS in 2008) is clearly the better defender, especially at shortstop, and could remain a solid utility man for the Angels. I see Aybar as having the better chance of being dealt to compete for a starting job with a lower end, smaller market team searching for a SS, such as the Orioles, Giants, or Pirates, should Jack Wilson be dealt. The Cardinals, Twins, and White Sox could be interested later in the off-season if nothing else turns up. The Braves could become interested if SS Yunel Escobar is included in a deal and the Padres should keep an eye on Aybar if they deal struggling SS Khalil Greene. Aybar could draw more interest than most people think. The market is thin beyond aging vets Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Edgar Renteria. David Eckstein and Adam Everett are not legitimate contributors. Finally, it pains me to say that Omar Vizquel, one of the all-time greats at shortstop might not report to spring training for a 21st season in 2009 as teams can no longer afford his bat in the lineup. The 41 year old’s glove work is still as good as it ever was (.993 fielding % in 2008), but Vizquel, along with his .984 career fielding %, has most likely come to the end of the line.
I like that the Rangers picked up Hank Blalock's '09 option. This pushes Milton Bradley out the door, as Blalock should now DH. The only spot for Chris Davis is at 3B now, if the Rangers want Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the everyday lineup. I think it is hard to keep a 23-year-old, 6'4/ 235 man crouched behind the plate because it risks shortening his career with knee injuries, and Max Ramirez will start everyday at Triple-A if not included in a trade for a pitcher. Gerald Laird is under contract until after the 2010 season and will be their catcher, while 24-year old Taylor Teagarden could back up. The Marlins, who have a knack for replenishing their starting pitching as well as finding young, cheap talent, could unload a starter to the Rangers for Ramirez. A deal involving Ricky Nolasco or Anibal Sanchez, Rick VandenHurk, and Cody Ross could net the Fish the backstop along with pair of mid-level pitching prospects, such as Derek Holland and John Bannister. Neftali Perez, currently at Double-A Frisco for the Rangers, should not be going anywhere.
The big-names to be courted during this winter’s free agency period (Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, etc.) and big-name players who will potentially be shopped, (Garrett Atkins, Mike Cameron, etc.) are not the subject of this column, as they are discussed to no end by every beat writer and blogger who regards himself as a baseball expert. My goal is to predict the destinations of the smaller name players who will have big impacts in the coming seasons and to examine the reasons why certain signings/trades make sense. After all, the majority of off-season moves fall into this category, and ultimately make a big difference for the buyers and sellers over the course of the season.
One key free agent to watch is LF Pat Burrell. It is well known that Burrell’s first choice is to remain in Philadelphia with the team that drafted him first overall in 1998. The team to watch in the Burrell sweepstakes, should the Phillies push him out the door, is the Baltimore Orioles. The team has shown interest in Burrell in previous years, and it was reported that the club even had a deal in place two years ago for the left fielder until Burrell exercised his no-trade clause. With Adam Jones a lock in center field and Nick Markakis in right, Burrell would seem the obvious choice to start in left ahead of Luke Scott who shared time with free agent veteran Jay Payton. Payton will not be back if Burrell signs with Baltimore. Scott put up respectable numbers in 2008, registering career-highs in home runs (23) and RBI’s (65). Scott (.257 BA in 2008) is only about a year and a half younger than Burrell (.257 career BA). Burrell’s production and defense, yes his defense (86 outfield assists since 2000, including 12 in 2008), will outweigh Scott’s edge in the youth category. Offensively, since his first full season in 2001, Burrell has averaged over 29 HR and 93 RBIs per season. At 32, he will be an impact in the middle of the lineup still for a number of years. Another team to watch is the Dodgers, who might be in need of a LF should Manny Ramirez depart. Andruw Jones has bottomed out, but has one year remaining in LA, and Juan Pierre has requested a trade. With Matt Kemp in center, Andre Ethier in right, and two big right handed bats leaving the lineup (Ramirez and 2B Jeff Kent), Burrell would fit nicely in left for Joe Torre’s squad. Look for Burrell, who earned $14 million in 2008, to receive a contract slightly upwards of Eric Byrnes’s pre-2008 contract extension, worth $30 million over three seasons.
Free agent 3B Joe Crede is out of a job on the South Side of Chicago, as Josh Fields is the heir apparent at third, and the White Sox have grown tired of Crede’s never-ending back issues. Crede is a legitimate power threat, topping 20 HR in three consecutive years from 2004-2006, hitting 30 in ’06, the best offensive year of his career. In addition to his offensive aptitude, he has an exceptional glove at third base. His performance defensively was poor in 2008, the only year in which he topped 12 errors in a season. His career .963 fielding percentage speaks for itself. Crede goes toward the line and can pick it on his backhand with the best of them. Injuries will be the only detractor in Crede’s case, but the Brewers, Dodgers, Indians, Angels and Twins should be most interested. The Indians just dealt 3B Casey Blake, who could walk away from the Dodgers, the team that dealt 3B prospect Andy LaRoche in order to land Manny Ramirez at the trade deadline. The Brewers officially gave up on Bill Hall, buying out his contract, and 3B has been a problem spot for the Twins since the Mike Lamb experiment failed last season. Crede and Blake will create competition among these teams looking to shore up their hot corners. If healthy, Crede is hands down the better value and is five years younger than Blake. The teams interested will certainly be reduced by one should one of those mentioned swing a trade for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins, who has two arbitration years ahead of him before free agency.
Pending Burrell’s departure from Philadelphia, the Phillies will be looking for a right handed bat to platoon in the outfield and to balance the bench that includes lefties Matt Stairs, Jeff Jenkins, and Greg Dobbs. A low risk solution could potentially be found in 30-year old free agent Juan Rivera. He is a career .284 hitter and had his best season in 2006, but has lately been the victim of the Angels' outfield depth (Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson – also a free agent, Gary Matthews, Jr., Reggie Willits). Rivera will not be expensive, and should welcome the idea of a platoon role over being a fifth outfielder, as he was in LA.
Sean Casey’s one-year, $800,000 contract with the Red Sox has expired, and with Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, and even David Ortiz able to man first base in Boston, Casey is almost a sure bet to depart. He is a career .302 contact hitter with a lifetime on-base percentage of .381 and seems a perfect fit for the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s style of low-risk, short-term signings. First base has been a problem spot for Oakland as Daric Barton and John Hannahan performed terribly at the plate this past season. Barton and Hannahan, who manned third base for much of the year for the oft-injured Eric Chavez, were near mirror images of each other in 2008 as Barton hit .226 with 9 HR/ 47 RBIs/ 2 steals in 140 games and Hannahan hit .218 with 9 HR/47 RBI/ 2 steals in 143 games. Both are left handed, like Casey. I’ll take Casey.
Trades:
One of the most intriguing teams this off-season is shaping up to be the Oakland A’s. Billy Beane just acquired LF Matt Holliday from the Rockies for lefty starter Greg Smith, closer Huston Street, and OF Carlos Gonzalez. As I have written before, the shrewd GM is turned off by any long-term contract and commitment demands, the same demands that Holliday will be making one year from now when he tests the free agent market for the first time. So, first order of business is to discount any possibility of Holliday being in an Athletics uniform beyond 2009, or maybe even by the end of the 2009 season. Beane often signs veterans to 1-year deals, which is essentially what he has in Holliday, at $13 million, a salary Beane is never inclined to hand out. I see two potential options that Beane is weighing. The first is another trade of Holliday before the start of the season, when teams who do not solve their off-season LF issues begin to panic. In such a trade, Beane, whom I regard as the most deft trade negotiator in baseball, would garner more young talent than he gave up in Smith, Street, and Gonzalez. If he does not go this route, I expect Beane to deal Holliday at next year’s trade deadline, given that the A’s trail the Angels in the West. In that situation, Beane again would receive more in return than he gave up to get Holliday. If the A’s are in first place in the AL West come the end of July 2009, Beane will likely keep Holliday’s bat and receive two compensation draft picks (one from the team Holliday signs with, one supplemental round pick) in return, as Holliday will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent.
With the recent re-signing of sure handed 2B Mark Ellis (.989 fielding percentage) to a 2-year extension through 2010, Ellis could be keeping second base warm for 21-year old Double-A prospect Adrian Cardenas (.297 career Minor League BA). A year from now, depending on Cardenas’s progress in Triple-A Sacramento, Ellis could be valuable trade bait to a high-powered team looking to shore up second base with top-flight defense (i.e. the Cubs should Mark DeRosa sign elsewhere). Eric Chavez is also under contract through 2010. He has one of the best gloves I have ever seen at third base (.969 career fielding %), and is a 25 HR threat when healthy. He also will only be 31, and hopefully back and shoulder pain free, when the 2009 season begins. A solid campaign this coming year could net Beane quality young talent in a potential trade next off-season.
Teams looking for a utility man will probably first inquire about Willy Aybar of Tampa Bay following his strong performance as a fill-in at 3B when Evan Longoria went down. Aybar’s .353 postseason batting average and pair of HRs in the ALCS drove up his market value, but GM Andrew Friedman should be inclined to keep Aybar, who is valuable all around the infield.
When Willy Aybar does not work out, teams should turn their attention to the Angels’ infield as Brandon Wood is primed to emerge as the everyday shortstop, finally adding some pop to the position that has been manned by Willy’s brother Erick Aybar, fellow utility man Maicer Izturis, and even Chone Figgins. Aybar and Izturis will be expendable now that Wood is here to stay, and should the Angels land a third baseman such as Joe Crede, Figgins will fall into the expendable category, as well. Erick Aybar and Izturis are basically equals offensively, but Aybar (24) is four years younger and is more likely to see his offensive numbers improve in the coming years. Izturis (.967 career fielding %, .991 at SS in 2008) is clearly the better defender, especially at shortstop, and could remain a solid utility man for the Angels. I see Aybar as having the better chance of being dealt to compete for a starting job with a lower end, smaller market team searching for a SS, such as the Orioles, Giants, or Pirates, should Jack Wilson be dealt. The Cardinals, Twins, and White Sox could be interested later in the off-season if nothing else turns up. The Braves could become interested if SS Yunel Escobar is included in a deal and the Padres should keep an eye on Aybar if they deal struggling SS Khalil Greene. Aybar could draw more interest than most people think. The market is thin beyond aging vets Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Edgar Renteria. David Eckstein and Adam Everett are not legitimate contributors. Finally, it pains me to say that Omar Vizquel, one of the all-time greats at shortstop might not report to spring training for a 21st season in 2009 as teams can no longer afford his bat in the lineup. The 41 year old’s glove work is still as good as it ever was (.993 fielding % in 2008), but Vizquel, along with his .984 career fielding %, has most likely come to the end of the line.
I like that the Rangers picked up Hank Blalock's '09 option. This pushes Milton Bradley out the door, as Blalock should now DH. The only spot for Chris Davis is at 3B now, if the Rangers want Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the everyday lineup. I think it is hard to keep a 23-year-old, 6'4/ 235 man crouched behind the plate because it risks shortening his career with knee injuries, and Max Ramirez will start everyday at Triple-A if not included in a trade for a pitcher. Gerald Laird is under contract until after the 2010 season and will be their catcher, while 24-year old Taylor Teagarden could back up. The Marlins, who have a knack for replenishing their starting pitching as well as finding young, cheap talent, could unload a starter to the Rangers for Ramirez. A deal involving Ricky Nolasco or Anibal Sanchez, Rick VandenHurk, and Cody Ross could net the Fish the backstop along with pair of mid-level pitching prospects, such as Derek Holland and John Bannister. Neftali Perez, currently at Double-A Frisco for the Rangers, should not be going anywhere.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Off-Season Speculation: Part 1 - Pitching
The Free Agent Market
With Game 1 of the World Series upon us, it is not too early to begin off-season free agent and potential trade speculation. For the second consecutive season, the Mets’ bullpen successfully barred the franchise from reaching the playoffs after the team led in the division in the dying weeks of the season. With closer Billy Wagner on the shelf for at least the majority of the 2009 season and the bullpen on the verge of an overhaul, look for the big-spending Mets to make the hardest push for free-agent closer Fancisco Rodriguez. With options such as established eighth inning man Scott Shields and developing, hard-throwing right hander Jose Arredondo coming onto the scene in the late innings, it would be wise for the Angels to pass on Rodriguez, who will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent, allowing the Angels to acquire either a first or second round pick in the 2009 First Year Player Draft from the team that signs Rodriguez. Also, the surrender of K-Rod leaves the franchise with more free money to retain the services of newly acquired 1B, and free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira.
Rodriguez, who set a Major League record this past season with 62 saves, will certainly command a watershed contract from the teams that court him during the winter meetings. Last year, current Reds closer Francisco Cordero signed a 4 year/ $46 million deal. At the time of the signing, Cordero was 32. Rodriguez is only 26. When he inks his deal this winter, the number of years should surpass the four received by Cordero. Rodriguez has also pitched in a key closer role for a World Series Champion team and has three seasons of 50 or more saves to his credit. Cordero has not pitched in the post-season and has never reached the 50 save plateau. Furthermore, Rodriguez owns a career 2.35 ERA, to Cordero’s 3.29 mark, and K-Rod has a converted saves for his career at an 86.3% (208/241) success rate, while Cordero’s success rate is significantly lower at 80.2% (211/263). The extensions reached between the Phillies and closer Brad Lidge and between Minnesota and their closer Joe Nathan do two things to the value of K-Rod’s approaching contract. It increases the competition and demand for an established closer, because they represent two top flight closers that will not be on the open market. The 3 year/$37.5 million deal received by Lidge averages $12.5 million per year, more than the $11.5 per given to Cordero and the $11.75 million given to Nathan. Only Mariano Rivera, preparing to enter the second season of a three year deal, averages $15 million annually. This could be the average value K-Rod and his agent, Paul Kinzer, will seek. Let the bidding begin at 4 years and $46 million with the ceiling of $15 million annually for a starting value of 5 years/$75 million. I expect a contract somewhere in the middle between 4 years/$52 million and 5 years/$65 million. Despite his dominance, however, K-Rod will remain beatable. Keep in mind the fact that he blew 7 saves this season, and he throws a very high number of curve balls. To this point, he has avoided severe shoulder and elbow issues, but they might not be far off as he enters his upper twenties. Omar Minaya, beware.
High risk GMs in with big market teams looking to solidify their starting rotations will keep and eye on Blue Jays’ starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, who could exercise the famous opt-out clause that kicks in after this season, the third in his 5 year/$55 million deal. Any baseball writer who can name big market teams will tell you that the list of potential suitors could include the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Angels are absent from this list simply because their rotation is set with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, John Garland, Joe Saunders, and Jared Weaver.
Given the success enjoyed by C.C. Sabathia in the National League this season, I would not be surprised in the least to see him stay. In the East, the Phillies do not seem realistic contenders in the looming sweepstakes, nor do the Mets who already have Johan Santana’s mega-contract to deal with. The Braves do not seem likely, as GM Frank Wren appears to want to build around youth, both home grown and prospects acquired via trade. The Marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball, they are out. The Nationals would do better to focus on executing the fundamentals of baseball, rather than signing a big free agent.
In the Central, the Cubs will have a full rotation, especially if Ryan Dempster is re-signed and remains in the rotation. If so, the Cubs, who picked up Rich Harden’s $7 million option for 2009, will enter next year with Carlos Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis under contract. Even lefty Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, and rookie Jeff Samardzija could potentially be starting options. The Astros appear to be focused primarily on upgrading their pitching staff through a trade for Jake Peavy, although nothing is for sure yet. The Brewers should make a push to retain Ben Sheets or reel in Burnett if he bails on his current deal. If neither happens, they must piece together a trade Number 1 or 2 starter to head the rotation with Yovanni Gallardo, but this is not likely due to the damage inflicted by the Indians on the Brewers’ farm system in the Sabathia trade that allowed the Tribe to snatch Matt LaPorta. The Cardinals are probably out with their signing of Kyle Lohse for 4 years and $41 million. Their rotation next year will include Lohse, Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, 22 year old lefty prospect Jaime Garcia, and either Joel Piniero or a maybe even a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Pirates and Reds have no chance of landing any of the Big 3 available starters (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett). The addition of Sabathia to either of those teams would do little more than ensure that the club will not finish in last place.
Out West, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and future star Max Scherzer will lead the D-Backs’ rotation. The Giants are bogged down with Barry “the Bust” Zito’s contract and expensive deals for young righties Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the horizon, unless Cain is dealt for a top position player. The Rockies, despite their rotation woes, are not in the financial position to bring in an expensive free agent starter, as GM Dan O’Dowd’s preference is to choose from in-house candidates. The Padres could be looking to unload Jake Peavy in a rebuilding effort and will not attempt to sign a big name starter in the process of dumping one. That leaves the Dodgers in the NL. They are coming off a slightly above average regular season in a weak division and a run to the NLCS. They will look to add to the pitching staff that includes an aging Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda, and young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Jason Schmidt has been done for a few years due to incessant shoulder and arm issues, and Greg Maddux, if he is re-signed, simply will not contribute the way Sabathia will. To identify the front runner in the Sabathia bidding, I say he is a Dodger next year, given that he stays in the National League. This will leave the Yankees and Red Sox the primary suitors trying to woo Sheets and Burnett. Sheets missed the end of the year with elbow discomfort, in much the same manner as Tim Hudson went down. Could Tommy John claim Sheets too? Burnett was healthy this year, made 34 starts, and led the AL in strikeouts – a prime formula for seeking a pay raise. In his career, he has either enjoyed tremendous success or endured a variety of injuries. He has been limited to 25 starts or fewer in a season five times since 2000.
Trades
On the trade front, Billy Beane will again be a popular man during the Winter Meetings. With the market for closers drying up via contract extensions, teams looking to acquire an established closer could inquire about 25 year old Oakland right hander Huston Street. He has two years of salary arbitration ahead of him, meaning that any team that would potentially acquire him this offseason would have control of Street through at least the 2010 season. Street endured a down year this past season, but still owns a career ERA of 2.88, a K:BB of better than 3:1., fewer career hits than innings pitched, and a WHIP of only 1.07. The Mets could be potential suitors if Francisco Rodriguez does not sign there. With the late season emergence of rookie Brad Ziegler in the closer role for Oakland, RHP’s Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine will prepare to handle the seventh and eighth innings. The A’s could also swing a trade this winter with their glut of Major League ready, left-handed starting pitchers: Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez. Left hander Josh Outman, 24, was acquired from Philadelphia in the Joe Blanton deal and has starting experience, but will contribute more in the bullpen as the situational lefty should the A’s decline 38 year old Alan Embree’s 2009 club option. Also in the rotation are newly acquired right hander Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer, who is coming off a career year. If the A’s are looking to deal one or more of their starting pitchers, the Astros, Padres, and White Sox could be potential matches.
In a possible Peavy trade between the Padres and Astros, the Padres will likely demand a package of a center fielder and two pitching prospects, similar to that demanded by the Minnesota Twins when they were peddling Johan Santana. Peavy, evidently, has a desire to remain in the National League, and has a no trade clause he would need to waive. If the Padres were to trade Peavy, which does not make sense because he is under contract with the organization through 2012 and is a perennial Cy Young candidate, the deal could center around CF Michael Bourn, Class-AA lefty starter Polin Trinidad, and righty prospect Brad James, who ended the year on the 40-man roster. The Astros’ minor league system has a dreadful dearth of talent, especially on the pitching front. I hope San Diego GM Kevin Towers is not in too much of a hurry to make this trade, even though Peavy might want to pitch in Houston with his buddy Roy Oswalt.
Another top flight young pitcher who could be on the move this winter is Matt Cain of the Giants. He is a young hard throwing right hander with excellent stuff and, in all three of his full big league seasons, Cain made at least 31 starts, topped 200 innings in both 2007 and 2008, and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. Cain is a dominant pitcher who will continue to develop into a solid ace. The only reason the Giants should consider moving him would be to net a top position player in return, is that Tim Lincecum will anchor the staff and stands to contribute more than Cain in the future. If the Giants do move Cain, they should be looking for a long term upgrade at any one of the infield positions. A late inning reliever will also be necessary if the team wants to compete for a post-season spot in the coming years.
Finally, it is that time of year for the Marlins who will begin next season with Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Andrew Miller in the rotation. Nicky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen are the three others competing for the last two spots. Nolasco performed best out of the trio, and Olsen has been healthier and more durable than Sanchez. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Marlins part ways with one or more of the later three, as the club never ceases to amaze me with the young pitching talent it continues to produce at the Major League level. Twenty four year old lefty Eulogio De La Cruz (Class-AAA, 13-8/ 4.34 ERA/ 118 K in 25 starts) is my pick be the next Marlins starter to make an impact on the rotation should a combination of injuries and trades occur.
With Game 1 of the World Series upon us, it is not too early to begin off-season free agent and potential trade speculation. For the second consecutive season, the Mets’ bullpen successfully barred the franchise from reaching the playoffs after the team led in the division in the dying weeks of the season. With closer Billy Wagner on the shelf for at least the majority of the 2009 season and the bullpen on the verge of an overhaul, look for the big-spending Mets to make the hardest push for free-agent closer Fancisco Rodriguez. With options such as established eighth inning man Scott Shields and developing, hard-throwing right hander Jose Arredondo coming onto the scene in the late innings, it would be wise for the Angels to pass on Rodriguez, who will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent, allowing the Angels to acquire either a first or second round pick in the 2009 First Year Player Draft from the team that signs Rodriguez. Also, the surrender of K-Rod leaves the franchise with more free money to retain the services of newly acquired 1B, and free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira.
Rodriguez, who set a Major League record this past season with 62 saves, will certainly command a watershed contract from the teams that court him during the winter meetings. Last year, current Reds closer Francisco Cordero signed a 4 year/ $46 million deal. At the time of the signing, Cordero was 32. Rodriguez is only 26. When he inks his deal this winter, the number of years should surpass the four received by Cordero. Rodriguez has also pitched in a key closer role for a World Series Champion team and has three seasons of 50 or more saves to his credit. Cordero has not pitched in the post-season and has never reached the 50 save plateau. Furthermore, Rodriguez owns a career 2.35 ERA, to Cordero’s 3.29 mark, and K-Rod has a converted saves for his career at an 86.3% (208/241) success rate, while Cordero’s success rate is significantly lower at 80.2% (211/263). The extensions reached between the Phillies and closer Brad Lidge and between Minnesota and their closer Joe Nathan do two things to the value of K-Rod’s approaching contract. It increases the competition and demand for an established closer, because they represent two top flight closers that will not be on the open market. The 3 year/$37.5 million deal received by Lidge averages $12.5 million per year, more than the $11.5 per given to Cordero and the $11.75 million given to Nathan. Only Mariano Rivera, preparing to enter the second season of a three year deal, averages $15 million annually. This could be the average value K-Rod and his agent, Paul Kinzer, will seek. Let the bidding begin at 4 years and $46 million with the ceiling of $15 million annually for a starting value of 5 years/$75 million. I expect a contract somewhere in the middle between 4 years/$52 million and 5 years/$65 million. Despite his dominance, however, K-Rod will remain beatable. Keep in mind the fact that he blew 7 saves this season, and he throws a very high number of curve balls. To this point, he has avoided severe shoulder and elbow issues, but they might not be far off as he enters his upper twenties. Omar Minaya, beware.
High risk GMs in with big market teams looking to solidify their starting rotations will keep and eye on Blue Jays’ starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, who could exercise the famous opt-out clause that kicks in after this season, the third in his 5 year/$55 million deal. Any baseball writer who can name big market teams will tell you that the list of potential suitors could include the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Angels are absent from this list simply because their rotation is set with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, John Garland, Joe Saunders, and Jared Weaver.
Given the success enjoyed by C.C. Sabathia in the National League this season, I would not be surprised in the least to see him stay. In the East, the Phillies do not seem realistic contenders in the looming sweepstakes, nor do the Mets who already have Johan Santana’s mega-contract to deal with. The Braves do not seem likely, as GM Frank Wren appears to want to build around youth, both home grown and prospects acquired via trade. The Marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball, they are out. The Nationals would do better to focus on executing the fundamentals of baseball, rather than signing a big free agent.
In the Central, the Cubs will have a full rotation, especially if Ryan Dempster is re-signed and remains in the rotation. If so, the Cubs, who picked up Rich Harden’s $7 million option for 2009, will enter next year with Carlos Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis under contract. Even lefty Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, and rookie Jeff Samardzija could potentially be starting options. The Astros appear to be focused primarily on upgrading their pitching staff through a trade for Jake Peavy, although nothing is for sure yet. The Brewers should make a push to retain Ben Sheets or reel in Burnett if he bails on his current deal. If neither happens, they must piece together a trade Number 1 or 2 starter to head the rotation with Yovanni Gallardo, but this is not likely due to the damage inflicted by the Indians on the Brewers’ farm system in the Sabathia trade that allowed the Tribe to snatch Matt LaPorta. The Cardinals are probably out with their signing of Kyle Lohse for 4 years and $41 million. Their rotation next year will include Lohse, Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, 22 year old lefty prospect Jaime Garcia, and either Joel Piniero or a maybe even a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Pirates and Reds have no chance of landing any of the Big 3 available starters (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett). The addition of Sabathia to either of those teams would do little more than ensure that the club will not finish in last place.
Out West, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and future star Max Scherzer will lead the D-Backs’ rotation. The Giants are bogged down with Barry “the Bust” Zito’s contract and expensive deals for young righties Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the horizon, unless Cain is dealt for a top position player. The Rockies, despite their rotation woes, are not in the financial position to bring in an expensive free agent starter, as GM Dan O’Dowd’s preference is to choose from in-house candidates. The Padres could be looking to unload Jake Peavy in a rebuilding effort and will not attempt to sign a big name starter in the process of dumping one. That leaves the Dodgers in the NL. They are coming off a slightly above average regular season in a weak division and a run to the NLCS. They will look to add to the pitching staff that includes an aging Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda, and young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Jason Schmidt has been done for a few years due to incessant shoulder and arm issues, and Greg Maddux, if he is re-signed, simply will not contribute the way Sabathia will. To identify the front runner in the Sabathia bidding, I say he is a Dodger next year, given that he stays in the National League. This will leave the Yankees and Red Sox the primary suitors trying to woo Sheets and Burnett. Sheets missed the end of the year with elbow discomfort, in much the same manner as Tim Hudson went down. Could Tommy John claim Sheets too? Burnett was healthy this year, made 34 starts, and led the AL in strikeouts – a prime formula for seeking a pay raise. In his career, he has either enjoyed tremendous success or endured a variety of injuries. He has been limited to 25 starts or fewer in a season five times since 2000.
Trades
On the trade front, Billy Beane will again be a popular man during the Winter Meetings. With the market for closers drying up via contract extensions, teams looking to acquire an established closer could inquire about 25 year old Oakland right hander Huston Street. He has two years of salary arbitration ahead of him, meaning that any team that would potentially acquire him this offseason would have control of Street through at least the 2010 season. Street endured a down year this past season, but still owns a career ERA of 2.88, a K:BB of better than 3:1., fewer career hits than innings pitched, and a WHIP of only 1.07. The Mets could be potential suitors if Francisco Rodriguez does not sign there. With the late season emergence of rookie Brad Ziegler in the closer role for Oakland, RHP’s Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine will prepare to handle the seventh and eighth innings. The A’s could also swing a trade this winter with their glut of Major League ready, left-handed starting pitchers: Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez. Left hander Josh Outman, 24, was acquired from Philadelphia in the Joe Blanton deal and has starting experience, but will contribute more in the bullpen as the situational lefty should the A’s decline 38 year old Alan Embree’s 2009 club option. Also in the rotation are newly acquired right hander Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer, who is coming off a career year. If the A’s are looking to deal one or more of their starting pitchers, the Astros, Padres, and White Sox could be potential matches.
In a possible Peavy trade between the Padres and Astros, the Padres will likely demand a package of a center fielder and two pitching prospects, similar to that demanded by the Minnesota Twins when they were peddling Johan Santana. Peavy, evidently, has a desire to remain in the National League, and has a no trade clause he would need to waive. If the Padres were to trade Peavy, which does not make sense because he is under contract with the organization through 2012 and is a perennial Cy Young candidate, the deal could center around CF Michael Bourn, Class-AA lefty starter Polin Trinidad, and righty prospect Brad James, who ended the year on the 40-man roster. The Astros’ minor league system has a dreadful dearth of talent, especially on the pitching front. I hope San Diego GM Kevin Towers is not in too much of a hurry to make this trade, even though Peavy might want to pitch in Houston with his buddy Roy Oswalt.
Another top flight young pitcher who could be on the move this winter is Matt Cain of the Giants. He is a young hard throwing right hander with excellent stuff and, in all three of his full big league seasons, Cain made at least 31 starts, topped 200 innings in both 2007 and 2008, and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. Cain is a dominant pitcher who will continue to develop into a solid ace. The only reason the Giants should consider moving him would be to net a top position player in return, is that Tim Lincecum will anchor the staff and stands to contribute more than Cain in the future. If the Giants do move Cain, they should be looking for a long term upgrade at any one of the infield positions. A late inning reliever will also be necessary if the team wants to compete for a post-season spot in the coming years.
Finally, it is that time of year for the Marlins who will begin next season with Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Andrew Miller in the rotation. Nicky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen are the three others competing for the last two spots. Nolasco performed best out of the trio, and Olsen has been healthier and more durable than Sanchez. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Marlins part ways with one or more of the later three, as the club never ceases to amaze me with the young pitching talent it continues to produce at the Major League level. Twenty four year old lefty Eulogio De La Cruz (Class-AAA, 13-8/ 4.34 ERA/ 118 K in 25 starts) is my pick be the next Marlins starter to make an impact on the rotation should a combination of injuries and trades occur.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Most Valuable Brewer
My vote for the 2008 NL MVP might not count for a whole lot, but it goes, nonetheless, to a Milwaukee Brewer who has carried his team throughout the year, not just through 13 times (through 9/17/08) on the mound. Ryan Braun is hands down the National League’s Most Valuable Player. Although C.C. Sabathia’s contributions to the club since his arrival in early July have been extraordinary and well documented, Braun’s offensive production has allowed the team to challenge the Cubs in the NL Central and, to this point, maintain at least a share of first place in the Wild Card race. Sabathia’s run as the Brewers’ new ace has lasted a little over two months, and, to the dismay of the faltering Brewers, is bound to regress. Since he, similarly to Carlos Delgado, failed to contribute to his current team from April through the end of June, I remove him from MVP contention.
Many are making a case for Carlos Delgado to take home the coveted award, but the truth is that Delgado was a no more than a detriment to the Mets’ offense for the first three full months of the six month baseball season, batting at a .229 clip entering July 1. An explosion in the month of July appears to have saved his season and offensive production. In 26 July games, the Mets’ first baseman hit .357 with 9 homers and 24 RBIs, boosting his season average to .260 by the month’s end. I have watched a number of televised Mets games over the past several months, and on each telecast, the broadcasters invariably provide the viewers with Delgado’s offensive numbers since his two homer, 9 RBI performance in the first game of the cross-town double-header with the Yankees on June 27. Since that time, Delgado has gone 81 for 273, hitting .297 with 24 homers and 69 RBIs. These are impressive numbers, considering the fact that Delgado hit just .248 in the month of August. Essentially, with Delgado’s strong month of July, streaky August that saw him hit safely in less than one quarter of his at-bats, and a fruitful half of September, a .265 hitter for the year is in serious contention for the NL MVP Award. His batting average has not eclipsed .267 since the season’s 12th game! Cubs’ 3B Aramis Ramirez is hitting .280 (15 points above Delgado), with an equal RBI total of 105, and 89 runs scored (4 more than Delgado). Ramirez’s team boasts the best record in the NL and holds first place in the National League’s toughest division by 8.0 games. But in a lineup with Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Geovany Soto, Mark DeRosa, and others who are constantly on base forcing opposing pitchers to throw strikes, Ramirez sees more than a fair number of pitches to hit. Although he is well worthy of high consideration, Ramirez has not stood out as the biggest impact player in the lineup.
Lance Berkman’s .328 average, 28 HR, 100 RBIs, and 110 R are extraordinary. So are his 16 steals in 20 attempts and his ability to hit right (.284, 7 HR) and left (.341, 21 HR) handed. Where would his team be without him? Probably jostling for third place in the central division with the injury wrought Cardinals, just above the dreadful Reds, and the Pirates, who are closing the book on their 16th consecutive losing season. Oh wait, that’s exactly where they are now.
Perhaps the strongest MVP candidate in the National League is Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez, who is hitting .293 with 30 homers, 63 RBIs, 115 runs, and 33 steals. He has, however, been caught stealing 12 times, as he continues to learn the art of base stealing to improve on his raw speed. Ramirez has also committed 21 errors at the game’s most crucial position. Let’s compare him with Ryan Braun for a moment, discounting the RBI totals (Ramirez – 63, Braun – 97), because Ramirez bats leadoff for the Marlins. Braun is hitting .290 with 35 homers, 81 runs scored. He hits in fourth in the lineup and provides protection behind free-swinging lefty slugger Prince Fielder. Because of Ramirez’s spot in the lineup, his run total will invariably be higher than that of Braun, who has also contributed 14 steals. Defensively, Braun has not committed an error and has 9 outfield assists from left field, a position he is still learning following a switch from third base to begin this year. Where would the Marlins be without Hanley Ramirez? Third place in the NL East, not contending for a playoff spot, ahead of the Braves and Nationals. Sound familiar? Where would the Brewers be if not for Ryan Braun? The Brewers certainly could not replace his bat in the lineup. Current fourth outfielder Gabe Kapler is having a fine year in his role, but cannot match Braun’s offensive production.
If there were a July 1 – September 16, 2008 MVP Award, Delgado wins in a landslide. But for the six month long, 2008 Major League Baseball season, Ryan Braun is my choice for NL MVP.
Many are making a case for Carlos Delgado to take home the coveted award, but the truth is that Delgado was a no more than a detriment to the Mets’ offense for the first three full months of the six month baseball season, batting at a .229 clip entering July 1. An explosion in the month of July appears to have saved his season and offensive production. In 26 July games, the Mets’ first baseman hit .357 with 9 homers and 24 RBIs, boosting his season average to .260 by the month’s end. I have watched a number of televised Mets games over the past several months, and on each telecast, the broadcasters invariably provide the viewers with Delgado’s offensive numbers since his two homer, 9 RBI performance in the first game of the cross-town double-header with the Yankees on June 27. Since that time, Delgado has gone 81 for 273, hitting .297 with 24 homers and 69 RBIs. These are impressive numbers, considering the fact that Delgado hit just .248 in the month of August. Essentially, with Delgado’s strong month of July, streaky August that saw him hit safely in less than one quarter of his at-bats, and a fruitful half of September, a .265 hitter for the year is in serious contention for the NL MVP Award. His batting average has not eclipsed .267 since the season’s 12th game! Cubs’ 3B Aramis Ramirez is hitting .280 (15 points above Delgado), with an equal RBI total of 105, and 89 runs scored (4 more than Delgado). Ramirez’s team boasts the best record in the NL and holds first place in the National League’s toughest division by 8.0 games. But in a lineup with Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Geovany Soto, Mark DeRosa, and others who are constantly on base forcing opposing pitchers to throw strikes, Ramirez sees more than a fair number of pitches to hit. Although he is well worthy of high consideration, Ramirez has not stood out as the biggest impact player in the lineup.
Lance Berkman’s .328 average, 28 HR, 100 RBIs, and 110 R are extraordinary. So are his 16 steals in 20 attempts and his ability to hit right (.284, 7 HR) and left (.341, 21 HR) handed. Where would his team be without him? Probably jostling for third place in the central division with the injury wrought Cardinals, just above the dreadful Reds, and the Pirates, who are closing the book on their 16th consecutive losing season. Oh wait, that’s exactly where they are now.
Perhaps the strongest MVP candidate in the National League is Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez, who is hitting .293 with 30 homers, 63 RBIs, 115 runs, and 33 steals. He has, however, been caught stealing 12 times, as he continues to learn the art of base stealing to improve on his raw speed. Ramirez has also committed 21 errors at the game’s most crucial position. Let’s compare him with Ryan Braun for a moment, discounting the RBI totals (Ramirez – 63, Braun – 97), because Ramirez bats leadoff for the Marlins. Braun is hitting .290 with 35 homers, 81 runs scored. He hits in fourth in the lineup and provides protection behind free-swinging lefty slugger Prince Fielder. Because of Ramirez’s spot in the lineup, his run total will invariably be higher than that of Braun, who has also contributed 14 steals. Defensively, Braun has not committed an error and has 9 outfield assists from left field, a position he is still learning following a switch from third base to begin this year. Where would the Marlins be without Hanley Ramirez? Third place in the NL East, not contending for a playoff spot, ahead of the Braves and Nationals. Sound familiar? Where would the Brewers be if not for Ryan Braun? The Brewers certainly could not replace his bat in the lineup. Current fourth outfielder Gabe Kapler is having a fine year in his role, but cannot match Braun’s offensive production.
If there were a July 1 – September 16, 2008 MVP Award, Delgado wins in a landslide. But for the six month long, 2008 Major League Baseball season, Ryan Braun is my choice for NL MVP.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Successless in Seattle
The Seattle Mariners are the worst team in Major League Baseball, and it is no secret. It’s more like a joke. The only continuity exhibited by the AL West basement dwellers thus far has been that the lineup and pitching staff have been consistently bad. Only once over the past decade have the Mariners won the American League West Division. Although similar droughts are somewhat common around the League, recall that such a streak lacking accomplishment is less understandable in the only division consisting of just four teams.
Current Cubs manager Lou Piniella led the team to their last division championship. Since his departure following the 2002 season, four different men have managed in Seattle. Jim Riggleman serves as this year’s mid-season appointee and finds himself stuck with the underperforming mess that is the Mariners’ roster. He succeeds John McLaren, whose outstanding inadequacy lead to his firing about a year after his appointment as successor to Mike Hargrove during the 2007 season. Riggleman is the third consecutive manager in Seattle to not begin and end a season in the same position. Mel Stottlemyre is in only his first season as pitching coach with the M’s, replacing Rafael Chaves. Chaves was fired following the 2007 season along with the entire 2007 coaching staff, except McLaren, who did not last much longer.
A recent history of unfavorable acquisitions has hurt the Mariners. The off-season signing of former Twins right-handed starter Carlos Silva has proven counter-productive. The Mariners won the Silva sweepstakes, agreeing to pay him $48 million through the 2011 season. Silva has been ineffective when not on the DL, going 4-14 with a 6.53 ERA, thus far.
Also following the 2007 season, the Mariners’ front office dealt for former Baltimore lefty starter Eric Bedard, who is currently enduring his second DL stint of the year. His current stint, caused by left shoulder stiffness, is retroactive to July 5th. To get Bedard and the 15 starts he made for $7 million, the Mariners gave up top OF prospect Adam Jones and a quartet of pitchers, including Orioles currently injured closer George Sherrill. The loss of Jones will prove in the near future to be a blow to and an outfield that stands to lose Raul Ibanez to free agency following this season.
Jeremy Reed has played respectably in Center Field, but through 75 games has shown that he lacks power (2 HR), run production (24 RBI/ 20 runs scored), and contribution on the basepaths (1 SB in 3 attempts). Also, 26 year-old RF Mike Morse is currently on the shelf and hasn’t been used in any sort of a regular role since the 2005 campaign, in which he played 72 games for Seattle.
Smooth swinging, current fourth outfielder Wladimir Balentien is just 24 and has the potential to be an everyday outfielder, but will need to improve on his .200 batting average. Beyond him, only Michael Wilson, 25, (.276/27 HR/84 RBIs/ 9 SB) in and Gregory Halman, 21, (.277/ 10/ 30/ 8 SB) appear to have hope for bright futures in the Mariners’ outfield. Although both have high ceilings, it is a stretch to say that either will have a major impact in Seattle in 2009, as both are currently playing for Double-A West Tenn. Earlier this season at Single-A High Desert Halman stole 23 bases in 24 attempts.
Jose Vidro was released on August 13, three days after utilityman Willie Bloomquist went down with a hamstring injury. It is bad news when a career second-baseman with a capacity to play first base and DH in the absence of a utility-man is no longer valuable to a last place team. So ends the injury plagued saga of Jose Vidro.
The acquisition of Richie Sexson prior to the 2005 season is no exception in the trend of bad signings by the Mariners. Sexson has a terribly high career strikeout rate, punching out in more than one quarter of his career at-bats (1313 K’s in 4928 AB). He also sported only a .244 clip in his three and a half seasons as a Mariner, before the team released him due to a tragic lack of production. The Yankees signed him for about three weeks and disposed of his services in the same way after Sexson contributed just 7 hits in 28 at-bats.
Behind the plate, the Mariners locked up 32 year old Kenji Johjima for three years (beginning the 2008 season) and $24 million. Since that time, Johjima has exhibited some difficulty in handling the pitching staff when calling games. He has a tendency to have his pitchers “pitch backwards” to opposing hitters, that is, attack the hitter with breaking pitches at the beginning of the at-bat. Johjima’s lack of production (.209/ 5 HR/ 26 RBIs) warrants the current platoon his is in with lefty swinging 25 year-old backup Jeff Clement (.227/5/23) and 36 year old Jamie Burke.
At the hot corner, the Mariners inked Adrian Beltre to a 5 year/ $64 million deal one day after the Sexson signing in December of 2004. One must wonder about the collective intelligence of the Seattle front office committing so much to a player who has an season vastly uncharacteristic of his abilities. In 2004 for the Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 home runs, 121 RBIs, all career highs. In the two previous seasons, 2002 and 2003, Beltre batted .257 and .240, respectively. For his career entering his contract with the Mariners, Beltre was mediocre. Seattle signed a .334 hitter with great power. But due to what I have come to know as “regression to the mean,” got a man who was a career mediocre .274 hitter at the time with 25 home run pop in his bat. I define regression to the mean as a foreseeable and inexorable return of a veteran player to his average career performance statistics within a single standard deviation of the mean for the season(s) following a career year. Following his torrid 2004 campaign, Beltre has not hit above .276. He also has not eclipsed even 26 homers, 100 RBIs, or 200 hits during any other season at any time during his career. If I could ever offer any advice to any GM, I would say to beware the career years of a player, because they almost invariably overshadow underachieving career stats and coincide with a contract year.
The signing of Jarrod Washburn is a prime example of the Mariners overpaying for a historical underachiever coming off of a career year. The Mariners over invested in the mediocre left-hander, inking him to a contract worth four years and $37 million. He is nearing the end of his third season with the team, and during his time in Seattle, the 34-year old has not finished with a winning record, nor has he succeeded in keeping his ERA any lower that 4.32 for the year. In 2005, before signing with Seattle, Washburn made 29 starts for the Angels and boasted a 3.20 ERA. This is the season in which he earned his big payday in Seattle, not in the previous two seasons in which Washburn finished with ERA’s of 4.43 and 4.64, respectively. In his 11th Major League season, Washburn has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his career, has only recorded five seasons of 100 or more strikeouts, and has a career record of 98-100. Washburn has a career ERA of 4.13, nearly a full run per nine innings higher than he had in his contract season of 2005. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN. Hoping a player will repeat his performance of the previous year is a mistake. Looking at the performance trends of his career before signing him, is a necessity. Also, following a player’s signing of a long-term, guaranteed contract, the incentive to perform drops considerably.
So get used to the AL West Basement, Mariner fans. Finding fault in the Angels' lineup is no easy task, the A's continue to reload each year with young talent, and the Rangers' high-powered offense will continue to improve, especially with the emergence of 1B slugger Chris Davis, and Rookie OF David Murphy. I predict at least one more last place finish in 2009 before the M's make any kind of a push for third place.
Current Cubs manager Lou Piniella led the team to their last division championship. Since his departure following the 2002 season, four different men have managed in Seattle. Jim Riggleman serves as this year’s mid-season appointee and finds himself stuck with the underperforming mess that is the Mariners’ roster. He succeeds John McLaren, whose outstanding inadequacy lead to his firing about a year after his appointment as successor to Mike Hargrove during the 2007 season. Riggleman is the third consecutive manager in Seattle to not begin and end a season in the same position. Mel Stottlemyre is in only his first season as pitching coach with the M’s, replacing Rafael Chaves. Chaves was fired following the 2007 season along with the entire 2007 coaching staff, except McLaren, who did not last much longer.
A recent history of unfavorable acquisitions has hurt the Mariners. The off-season signing of former Twins right-handed starter Carlos Silva has proven counter-productive. The Mariners won the Silva sweepstakes, agreeing to pay him $48 million through the 2011 season. Silva has been ineffective when not on the DL, going 4-14 with a 6.53 ERA, thus far.
Also following the 2007 season, the Mariners’ front office dealt for former Baltimore lefty starter Eric Bedard, who is currently enduring his second DL stint of the year. His current stint, caused by left shoulder stiffness, is retroactive to July 5th. To get Bedard and the 15 starts he made for $7 million, the Mariners gave up top OF prospect Adam Jones and a quartet of pitchers, including Orioles currently injured closer George Sherrill. The loss of Jones will prove in the near future to be a blow to and an outfield that stands to lose Raul Ibanez to free agency following this season.
Jeremy Reed has played respectably in Center Field, but through 75 games has shown that he lacks power (2 HR), run production (24 RBI/ 20 runs scored), and contribution on the basepaths (1 SB in 3 attempts). Also, 26 year-old RF Mike Morse is currently on the shelf and hasn’t been used in any sort of a regular role since the 2005 campaign, in which he played 72 games for Seattle.
Smooth swinging, current fourth outfielder Wladimir Balentien is just 24 and has the potential to be an everyday outfielder, but will need to improve on his .200 batting average. Beyond him, only Michael Wilson, 25, (.276/27 HR/84 RBIs/ 9 SB) in and Gregory Halman, 21, (.277/ 10/ 30/ 8 SB) appear to have hope for bright futures in the Mariners’ outfield. Although both have high ceilings, it is a stretch to say that either will have a major impact in Seattle in 2009, as both are currently playing for Double-A West Tenn. Earlier this season at Single-A High Desert Halman stole 23 bases in 24 attempts.
Jose Vidro was released on August 13, three days after utilityman Willie Bloomquist went down with a hamstring injury. It is bad news when a career second-baseman with a capacity to play first base and DH in the absence of a utility-man is no longer valuable to a last place team. So ends the injury plagued saga of Jose Vidro.
The acquisition of Richie Sexson prior to the 2005 season is no exception in the trend of bad signings by the Mariners. Sexson has a terribly high career strikeout rate, punching out in more than one quarter of his career at-bats (1313 K’s in 4928 AB). He also sported only a .244 clip in his three and a half seasons as a Mariner, before the team released him due to a tragic lack of production. The Yankees signed him for about three weeks and disposed of his services in the same way after Sexson contributed just 7 hits in 28 at-bats.
Behind the plate, the Mariners locked up 32 year old Kenji Johjima for three years (beginning the 2008 season) and $24 million. Since that time, Johjima has exhibited some difficulty in handling the pitching staff when calling games. He has a tendency to have his pitchers “pitch backwards” to opposing hitters, that is, attack the hitter with breaking pitches at the beginning of the at-bat. Johjima’s lack of production (.209/ 5 HR/ 26 RBIs) warrants the current platoon his is in with lefty swinging 25 year-old backup Jeff Clement (.227/5/23) and 36 year old Jamie Burke.
At the hot corner, the Mariners inked Adrian Beltre to a 5 year/ $64 million deal one day after the Sexson signing in December of 2004. One must wonder about the collective intelligence of the Seattle front office committing so much to a player who has an season vastly uncharacteristic of his abilities. In 2004 for the Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 home runs, 121 RBIs, all career highs. In the two previous seasons, 2002 and 2003, Beltre batted .257 and .240, respectively. For his career entering his contract with the Mariners, Beltre was mediocre. Seattle signed a .334 hitter with great power. But due to what I have come to know as “regression to the mean,” got a man who was a career mediocre .274 hitter at the time with 25 home run pop in his bat. I define regression to the mean as a foreseeable and inexorable return of a veteran player to his average career performance statistics within a single standard deviation of the mean for the season(s) following a career year. Following his torrid 2004 campaign, Beltre has not hit above .276. He also has not eclipsed even 26 homers, 100 RBIs, or 200 hits during any other season at any time during his career. If I could ever offer any advice to any GM, I would say to beware the career years of a player, because they almost invariably overshadow underachieving career stats and coincide with a contract year.
The signing of Jarrod Washburn is a prime example of the Mariners overpaying for a historical underachiever coming off of a career year. The Mariners over invested in the mediocre left-hander, inking him to a contract worth four years and $37 million. He is nearing the end of his third season with the team, and during his time in Seattle, the 34-year old has not finished with a winning record, nor has he succeeded in keeping his ERA any lower that 4.32 for the year. In 2005, before signing with Seattle, Washburn made 29 starts for the Angels and boasted a 3.20 ERA. This is the season in which he earned his big payday in Seattle, not in the previous two seasons in which Washburn finished with ERA’s of 4.43 and 4.64, respectively. In his 11th Major League season, Washburn has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his career, has only recorded five seasons of 100 or more strikeouts, and has a career record of 98-100. Washburn has a career ERA of 4.13, nearly a full run per nine innings higher than he had in his contract season of 2005. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN. Hoping a player will repeat his performance of the previous year is a mistake. Looking at the performance trends of his career before signing him, is a necessity. Also, following a player’s signing of a long-term, guaranteed contract, the incentive to perform drops considerably.
So get used to the AL West Basement, Mariner fans. Finding fault in the Angels' lineup is no easy task, the A's continue to reload each year with young talent, and the Rangers' high-powered offense will continue to improve, especially with the emergence of 1B slugger Chris Davis, and Rookie OF David Murphy. I predict at least one more last place finish in 2009 before the M's make any kind of a push for third place.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Arms Arrivals Could Propel Teams into the Post-Season
With the non-waiver trade deadline looming, two of the biggest pitching chips have already been moved. On July 7th, the Indians found the deal they wanted with the Brewers for Ace left-hander C.C. Sabathia. Entering July 28, Sabathia has pitched three consecutive complete games, one of which was a shutout. In his first four starts as a Brewer, he has surrendered just 5 earned runs in 33 innings pitched, for a 1.36 ERA, while striking out 31 and walking just eight since arriving in the National League. Combined with fellow ace Ben Sheets, the Brewers have become strong candidates to ultimately subdue the third place Cardinals and possibly catch and/or pass the Cubs to take the NL Central division title. Behind the solidified staff, All-Star OF’s Ryan Braun and Corey Hart will continue to power an imposing offense that also features young stud 1B Prince Fielder and SS J.J Hardy. The recent addition of veteran 2B Ray Durham solidifies the middle defensively, and also serves as an offensive upgrade given the struggles of incumbent 2B Rickie Weekes.
Following the acquisition of Sabathia by the Brewers, the first-place Cubs quickly completed a trade with the ever-rebuilding Oakland A’s, who soon after parted ways with Opening Day starter Joe Blanton, for RHP Rich Harden. Harden is a difference maker when healthy and has 10 K stuff, that is the potential to strike out ten in any given start. He has an electric fastball in the mid-90’s, complemented by a nasty hard slider. Over the course of his first three starts with the Cubs, Harden has allowed only two runs (both earned). He also has scattered only a total of seven hits in 17.1 IP. Combined with established ace and workhorse Carlos Zambrano, and surprise closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster (11-4, 2.99 ERA, 117 K’s), Harden could be exactly the pitching addition the Cubs needed to counter the Sabathia trade and hold onto first place in the NL Central.
The Marlins’ Josh Johnson has returned from Tommy John surgery and appears to still have his dynamite stuff, featuring an explosive fastball that still touches 97 mph (after not pitching in a game for over one full year). His return could stabilize a Marlins rotation marred by injuries and inconsistency. Also, the arrival of pitching prospect Chris Volstad will aid in adding strength to the Florida rotation. Volstad has flown, to this point, somewhat under the radar as he has already turned in three solid starts. In his debut as a starter, Volstad lasted 8.2 innings and gave up just on earned run while beating the Dodgers. In his last two starts, he has pitched a total of 12 innings (6 in each start) and surrendered just five earned runs. The additions of the dominant Johnson and promising Volstad combined with Ricky Nolasco’s solid season could be enough to allow the slugging Fish to sneak past the Phillies and Mets to take the NL East, as the NL Wild-Card will most likely go to the Central’s runner up (either the Cubs or Brewers). To back up Florida’s pitching, the offense boasts sluggers Mike Jacobs (22 HR/60 RBI’s), Dan Uggla (25 HR/62 RBI’s), Jorge Cantu (18 HR/60 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (24 HR/47 RBI/ 84 runs scored), Jeremy Hermida (15 HR/47 RBI’s), Cody Ross (15 HR/49 RBI’s) and LF Josh Willingham who is returning from a DL stint.
The Tigers, currently making a push for the AL Central crown, will have to battle past the Twins and White Sox. If they do so, Detroit will be riding rookie rotation saver, Armando Galarraga, who boasts an ERA of 3.27 in 18 games (17 starts). Also, righty fireballer Justin Verlander finally appears to have turned things around as he recently turned in a string of eight consecutive starts in which he surrendered just two earned runs or fewer. This streak lasted from June 11 to July 26. With Verlander regaining his form of old despite a rocky outing against the White Sox on July 25th and the onslaught of runs the lineup is capable of scoring on a nightly basis, the Tigers should make a hard second half push for the AL Central. The returns of relievers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya could figure into the team’s immediate future as well.
The Twins figure to see the return of Francisco Liriano to the rotation at some point in the near future as he has torn apart Triple-A offenses. In the rotation, he could potentially replace the struggling Livan Hernandez (5.31 ERA), the only Twins starter with an ERA above 4.41. In 19 starts with Triple-A Rochester since his demotion, Liriano is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA to go with a .231 opponents batting average and a K:BB of 113:31. From June 30th to July 27th, Liriano did not give up an earned run in four of five starts. He is ready to make an impact.
Finally, perhaps the biggest potential difference maker is David Price, the first round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2007 Draft. During each of his final two years at Vanderbilt, the left hander broke the school’s single season strikeout record. He is currently pitching at the Double-A level and has been near untouchable throughout his college and minor league careers. Listed on the Rays’ 40-man roster, he could fill a rotation or a bullpen spot by the end of the season. In doing so, he would certainly join Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. He could potentially replace Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, who could make a transition to the bullpen with his live arm or become valuable trade bait. Price was clocked this past spring at 99 mph. Since joining Double-A, the 6’6” 22 year old has compiled a 2.19 ERA in six starts, allowing just 33 hits in 37 innings pitched. Of all prospects prepared to break into the league I am and have been most excited about Price’s arrival. Given his natural dominant abilities and the fact that the major leaguers have not yet faced him, Price stands to make an immediate difference. His potential addition to the first place Tampa staff might be enough to help the Rays to the franchise’s first pennant. The Yankees’ loss of Jorge Posada for the season furthers the Rays’ chances as well. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that this young group can hold off the Red Sox and take the division.
On the Side:
The Braves placed 3B Chipper Jones and Ace RHP Tim Hudson on the DL today, officially marking the beginning of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, as the Braves will attempt to trade for a major leaguer and possibly some prospects, instead of losing him through free agency at season’s end for two draft picks. Teixeira will certainly be classified as a Type-A free agent, allowing the Braves to receive the first round pick of the team that signs him (or the second round pick if the team he goes to finishes the 2008 campaign with on of the 15 worst records in the majors) in addition to a supplemental round pick, if Atlanta does not find the right deal for the switch hitting, Gold-Glove, slugger. The Yankees and Diamondbacks appear to be the front runners, however the Braves will demand a first-baseman in return. Also, any team interested in acquiring Teixeira’s services would be wise to consider the fact that he is most likely a rental player unless the team can sign him to a big extension. This could bring the big-market Angels into the bidding, as they continue their search for another big bat in the lineup. The Braves could demand a package of young first baseman Casey Kotchman, young, hard-throwing reliever Jose Arredondo, and another prospect (Triple-A RHP Nick Adenhart, maybe?). If it happens, you heard it here first.
Following the acquisition of Sabathia by the Brewers, the first-place Cubs quickly completed a trade with the ever-rebuilding Oakland A’s, who soon after parted ways with Opening Day starter Joe Blanton, for RHP Rich Harden. Harden is a difference maker when healthy and has 10 K stuff, that is the potential to strike out ten in any given start. He has an electric fastball in the mid-90’s, complemented by a nasty hard slider. Over the course of his first three starts with the Cubs, Harden has allowed only two runs (both earned). He also has scattered only a total of seven hits in 17.1 IP. Combined with established ace and workhorse Carlos Zambrano, and surprise closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster (11-4, 2.99 ERA, 117 K’s), Harden could be exactly the pitching addition the Cubs needed to counter the Sabathia trade and hold onto first place in the NL Central.
The Marlins’ Josh Johnson has returned from Tommy John surgery and appears to still have his dynamite stuff, featuring an explosive fastball that still touches 97 mph (after not pitching in a game for over one full year). His return could stabilize a Marlins rotation marred by injuries and inconsistency. Also, the arrival of pitching prospect Chris Volstad will aid in adding strength to the Florida rotation. Volstad has flown, to this point, somewhat under the radar as he has already turned in three solid starts. In his debut as a starter, Volstad lasted 8.2 innings and gave up just on earned run while beating the Dodgers. In his last two starts, he has pitched a total of 12 innings (6 in each start) and surrendered just five earned runs. The additions of the dominant Johnson and promising Volstad combined with Ricky Nolasco’s solid season could be enough to allow the slugging Fish to sneak past the Phillies and Mets to take the NL East, as the NL Wild-Card will most likely go to the Central’s runner up (either the Cubs or Brewers). To back up Florida’s pitching, the offense boasts sluggers Mike Jacobs (22 HR/60 RBI’s), Dan Uggla (25 HR/62 RBI’s), Jorge Cantu (18 HR/60 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (24 HR/47 RBI/ 84 runs scored), Jeremy Hermida (15 HR/47 RBI’s), Cody Ross (15 HR/49 RBI’s) and LF Josh Willingham who is returning from a DL stint.
The Tigers, currently making a push for the AL Central crown, will have to battle past the Twins and White Sox. If they do so, Detroit will be riding rookie rotation saver, Armando Galarraga, who boasts an ERA of 3.27 in 18 games (17 starts). Also, righty fireballer Justin Verlander finally appears to have turned things around as he recently turned in a string of eight consecutive starts in which he surrendered just two earned runs or fewer. This streak lasted from June 11 to July 26. With Verlander regaining his form of old despite a rocky outing against the White Sox on July 25th and the onslaught of runs the lineup is capable of scoring on a nightly basis, the Tigers should make a hard second half push for the AL Central. The returns of relievers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya could figure into the team’s immediate future as well.
The Twins figure to see the return of Francisco Liriano to the rotation at some point in the near future as he has torn apart Triple-A offenses. In the rotation, he could potentially replace the struggling Livan Hernandez (5.31 ERA), the only Twins starter with an ERA above 4.41. In 19 starts with Triple-A Rochester since his demotion, Liriano is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA to go with a .231 opponents batting average and a K:BB of 113:31. From June 30th to July 27th, Liriano did not give up an earned run in four of five starts. He is ready to make an impact.
Finally, perhaps the biggest potential difference maker is David Price, the first round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2007 Draft. During each of his final two years at Vanderbilt, the left hander broke the school’s single season strikeout record. He is currently pitching at the Double-A level and has been near untouchable throughout his college and minor league careers. Listed on the Rays’ 40-man roster, he could fill a rotation or a bullpen spot by the end of the season. In doing so, he would certainly join Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. He could potentially replace Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, who could make a transition to the bullpen with his live arm or become valuable trade bait. Price was clocked this past spring at 99 mph. Since joining Double-A, the 6’6” 22 year old has compiled a 2.19 ERA in six starts, allowing just 33 hits in 37 innings pitched. Of all prospects prepared to break into the league I am and have been most excited about Price’s arrival. Given his natural dominant abilities and the fact that the major leaguers have not yet faced him, Price stands to make an immediate difference. His potential addition to the first place Tampa staff might be enough to help the Rays to the franchise’s first pennant. The Yankees’ loss of Jorge Posada for the season furthers the Rays’ chances as well. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that this young group can hold off the Red Sox and take the division.
On the Side:
The Braves placed 3B Chipper Jones and Ace RHP Tim Hudson on the DL today, officially marking the beginning of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, as the Braves will attempt to trade for a major leaguer and possibly some prospects, instead of losing him through free agency at season’s end for two draft picks. Teixeira will certainly be classified as a Type-A free agent, allowing the Braves to receive the first round pick of the team that signs him (or the second round pick if the team he goes to finishes the 2008 campaign with on of the 15 worst records in the majors) in addition to a supplemental round pick, if Atlanta does not find the right deal for the switch hitting, Gold-Glove, slugger. The Yankees and Diamondbacks appear to be the front runners, however the Braves will demand a first-baseman in return. Also, any team interested in acquiring Teixeira’s services would be wise to consider the fact that he is most likely a rental player unless the team can sign him to a big extension. This could bring the big-market Angels into the bidding, as they continue their search for another big bat in the lineup. The Braves could demand a package of young first baseman Casey Kotchman, young, hard-throwing reliever Jose Arredondo, and another prospect (Triple-A RHP Nick Adenhart, maybe?). If it happens, you heard it here first.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Young Better Than Today's Youth
Michael Young of the Texas Rangers is and has been Major League Baseball’s most underrated shortstop for years, outperforming the league’s best for over half of a decade. After debuting with Texas in 2000, Young became a staple up the middle for the Rangers. He took over second base duties in 2001, as he was blocked at shortstop by Alex Rodriguez and his 10 year $252 million contract. After three years, A-Rod was shipped to the Bronx for then second baseman Alfonso Soriano. This move opened up shortstop for Young and allowed Soriano to take over second base for the Rangers (where he committed 23 errors in ’04 and 21 in ’05).
Since then, Young has been arguably the most productive shortstop offensively and certainly one of the game’s most solid defenders at the position, as he carries a career fielding percentage of .980. No easy task for someone who has spent his entire career in the infield and has played in at least 156 games in each of the past six full seasons. He could potentially extend that number to seven at the conclusion of this year.
Additionally, the 31 year-old Covina, California native has collected at least 200 hits in each of the past five seasons. To put this achievement into perspective, Derek Jeter cannot make this claim. Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, third year phenom Hanley Ramirez, and former perennial All-Star SS Nomar Garciaparra have each all reached the 200 hit plateau only once in their careers. Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, and Omar Vizquel have never even reached 200 hits in a season. Young has also hit over .300 in each of those seasons and owns a career batting average of .302. This year, he is currently on pace to finish with 203 hits if he plays in each of the final 66 games. Also, of the aforementioned band of talented shortstops, only Vizquel (.984) and Rollins (.982) have higher career fielding percentages. Young is also currently battling a hairline fracture on his left ring finger, but has nixed any possibility of a DL stint.
Michael Young has delivered the game winning RBI in two of the last three All-Star Games, including the 15th inning sacrifice fly off of Brad Lidge two nights ago. The other came in 2006 on an eventual game winning triple. Also, since the start of the 2003 season (5 ½ seasons) he has maintained a .357 batting average with runners in scoring position. Needless to say, he is an extremely clutch performer.
Young is also the real catalyst in the Rangers’ lineup. Much has been made of Texas’ leadoff man Ian Kinsler’s breakout season and of Josh Hamilton’s thumping of the league’s pitching. His knack for making contact behind the speedy Kinsler allows the Rangers to play hit and run with less risk. Since Young is so dangerous with the bat, pitchers are forced to go after him with their better breaking stuff, allowing Kinsler (23 steals in 24 attempts) to run more freely. Hamilton entered the All-Star Break with 95 RBI’s, second most all-time. Young’s high batting average, baserunning abilities (6 SB in 6 attempts), and on-base percentage of .350 allow Hamilton more RBI opportunities.
Young’s tenure with the organization has seen three different General Managers and four managers. He is also currently the longest tenured player on the Rangers’ roster, barely edging reliever Joaquin Benoit, who debuted in 2001. The general theme is that Michael Young is the epitome of consistency in baseball, and has close to a decade of good baseball ahead of him.
As modest as they come, Young always offers praise for his teammates when asked about his own accomplishments and abilities. Never has he made public a complaint about playing in the shadow of other shortstop standouts like Jeter, Rollins, and Reyes. In this age of Prima Donna and thug icons in sports, Michael has always carried himself in an exemplary manner and behaved in model fashion on and off the field. The Rangers truly have an all-around gem in Michael Young. He contributes on all levels within the game and will always receive my highest commendation.
Since then, Young has been arguably the most productive shortstop offensively and certainly one of the game’s most solid defenders at the position, as he carries a career fielding percentage of .980. No easy task for someone who has spent his entire career in the infield and has played in at least 156 games in each of the past six full seasons. He could potentially extend that number to seven at the conclusion of this year.
Additionally, the 31 year-old Covina, California native has collected at least 200 hits in each of the past five seasons. To put this achievement into perspective, Derek Jeter cannot make this claim. Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, third year phenom Hanley Ramirez, and former perennial All-Star SS Nomar Garciaparra have each all reached the 200 hit plateau only once in their careers. Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, and Omar Vizquel have never even reached 200 hits in a season. Young has also hit over .300 in each of those seasons and owns a career batting average of .302. This year, he is currently on pace to finish with 203 hits if he plays in each of the final 66 games. Also, of the aforementioned band of talented shortstops, only Vizquel (.984) and Rollins (.982) have higher career fielding percentages. Young is also currently battling a hairline fracture on his left ring finger, but has nixed any possibility of a DL stint.
Michael Young has delivered the game winning RBI in two of the last three All-Star Games, including the 15th inning sacrifice fly off of Brad Lidge two nights ago. The other came in 2006 on an eventual game winning triple. Also, since the start of the 2003 season (5 ½ seasons) he has maintained a .357 batting average with runners in scoring position. Needless to say, he is an extremely clutch performer.
Young is also the real catalyst in the Rangers’ lineup. Much has been made of Texas’ leadoff man Ian Kinsler’s breakout season and of Josh Hamilton’s thumping of the league’s pitching. His knack for making contact behind the speedy Kinsler allows the Rangers to play hit and run with less risk. Since Young is so dangerous with the bat, pitchers are forced to go after him with their better breaking stuff, allowing Kinsler (23 steals in 24 attempts) to run more freely. Hamilton entered the All-Star Break with 95 RBI’s, second most all-time. Young’s high batting average, baserunning abilities (6 SB in 6 attempts), and on-base percentage of .350 allow Hamilton more RBI opportunities.
Young’s tenure with the organization has seen three different General Managers and four managers. He is also currently the longest tenured player on the Rangers’ roster, barely edging reliever Joaquin Benoit, who debuted in 2001. The general theme is that Michael Young is the epitome of consistency in baseball, and has close to a decade of good baseball ahead of him.
As modest as they come, Young always offers praise for his teammates when asked about his own accomplishments and abilities. Never has he made public a complaint about playing in the shadow of other shortstop standouts like Jeter, Rollins, and Reyes. In this age of Prima Donna and thug icons in sports, Michael has always carried himself in an exemplary manner and behaved in model fashion on and off the field. The Rangers truly have an all-around gem in Michael Young. He contributes on all levels within the game and will always receive my highest commendation.
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